LA BIFURCACIÓN DEL SISTEMA FINANCIERO MUNDIAL SEGÚN MICHAEL HOWELL ("CAPITAL WAR")

«The Global Monetary System is Bifurcating Into Two Different Zones»https://t.co/7Dn3enbCrk

— Guillermo Ruiz Zapatero (@ruiz_zapatero) December 12, 2025

pic.twitter.com/uvlnJfQeoG

— Guillermo Ruiz Zapatero (@ruiz_zapatero) December 12, 2025

we can identify a global liquidity cycle with a fairly constant frequency of about 65 months, i.e. five to six years. This has turned out to be quite a robust estimate of the cycle. The current cycle bottomed in October 2022 and has been moving up since.

— Guillermo Ruiz Zapatero (@ruiz_zapatero) December 12, 2025

The global monetary system is bifurcating into two different zones. On one side is the Chinese system, backed by gold, and on the other side is the U.S. system, backed by U.S. Treasuries in a digital wrapper.

— Guillermo Ruiz Zapatero (@ruiz_zapatero) December 12, 2025

And we Europeans? Are we just bystanders in this capital war?

Mostly, yes.

— Guillermo Ruiz Zapatero (@ruiz_zapatero) December 12, 2025

From the perspective of currencies, the Swiss franc is solid... The trouble is that it’s too small. The euro, on the other hand, is very problematic, for the simple reason that the fiscal situation in Europe is out of control

— Guillermo Ruiz Zapatero (@ruiz_zapatero) December 12, 2025

Why are they doing this now? 

The reason is probably U.S. stablecoin, which is basically a digital wrapper around U.S. Treasury Notes. If you are anywhere in the world, there are some attractions in holding a dollar stablecoin, such as anonymity, ease of use, whatever. It clearly frightened some leading figures in the ECB into saying that Europe needs to start defending its monetary system against this, because we could lose control of money. Now, if Europeans see dollar stablecoin as a threat, just imagine the threat this means for China. If your currency is wobbly, if you are inflating it and if you have capital controls, U.S. stablecoin is hugely attractive for your citizens. Beijing can’t allow that. 

And that’s why they are backing the renminbi with gold? 

Yes. The global monetary system is bifurcating into two different zones. On one side is the Chinese system, backed by gold, and on the other side is the U.S. system, backed by U.S. Treasuries in a digital wrapper. The Chinese are saying ‹trust our gold›. America is saying ‹trust our technology›. This means that the Chinese want the gold price to rise. This is bullish for gold, silver and all precious metals. But this monetary bifurcation, ironically, also means that it’s in America’s interest to try and destabilize the gold price, in order not to benefit China. Vice versa, it’s in China’s interest to disrupt the digital U.S. economy. We are talking about a capital war here. 

How will this capital war play out? 

I tend to believe in American technology and I hope that America wins. Because I’m in the West and this outcome would selfishly benefit me. But history suggests that China may be in a stronger position because gold always holds its value in the long term. You can’t bet against gold. At the same time, it has never been a winning strategy to bet against the U.S. So we will have to see how it plays out. Rather than the trade war, which is a smoke screen, the real war is a capital war between the U.S. and China. This war is about the control of capital flows, of currency, and ultimately of the global economy. 

 And we Europeans? Are we just bystanders in this capital war? 

Mostly, yes. From the perspective of currencies, the Swiss franc is solid with a great track record. It will survive and people will trust it. The trouble is that it’s too small. The euro, on the other hand, is very problematic, for the simple reason that the fiscal situation in Europe is out of control. Germany is languishing, and France has a huge debt problem. Sterling, meanwhile, is flapping around in the wind, it offers no viable option. Ultimately, European currencies will have to peg in some way, informally, to the dollar. The problem that Europe has, fundamentally, is they don’t have any control over energy supply and they have a welfare state system that is way too generous. There will have to be a reneging of the promises that have been made. Otherwise their debt will spiral out of control. 

 

Michael Howell

 

 

Lawmakers from Italy's ruling party have proposed an amendment to the 2026 budget law. Initially it said the central bank's gold belonged to the state, but they have revised that to say it belongs to the Italian people.
The ECB last week urged Italy to drop the provision.

— Guillermo Ruiz Zapatero (@ruiz_zapatero) December 11, 2025

Dr. Michael J. Howell is a leading financial advisor with a career spanning over three decades. He is the founder and CEO of CrossBorder Capital, established in 1996, and more recently founded GL Indexes, a London-based investment advisor and quantitative data provider. His career includes senior roles as Research Director at Salomon Brothers and Head of Research and board director at Barings. Howell has also advised the World Bank on capital flows and is the author of influential books, including Investing in Emerging Markets (World Bank, 1995) and Capital Wars (Palgrave, 2020). He writes the top-ranked Substack newsletter Capital Wars. He holds a Ph.D. in Finance and is a qualified US Supervisory Analyst. Dr. Howell lives in Oxford with his family.

 

 

 

GUERRA E HISTORIA (ENTREVISTA DE PIERS MORGAN A JEFFREY SACHS (18-03-2024; "EL PAÍS ESTÁ ROTO"))

00:00 - Introduction 

02:13 - Professor Sachs on Russia's invasion of Ukraine: “This war was completely avoidable” 

07:13 - Professor Sachs 'begged the White House many times to avoid war in Ukraine' 

14:08 - Why can’t you say anything critical of Putin or Russia? 

14:52 - A bid to ban TikTok and its influence 

15:58 - “Do I find China a threat to the U.S.? No, not at all” 

19:44 - Are there any bad guys in the world? 

20:31 - What would you have done with Hitler after he invaded? 

22:16 - The war in Israel: “We’ve never seen a Government like this before” 

26:33 - Professor Sachs on U.S. politics: The country is “broken right now” 

BREAKING

UN ceasefire resolution passes, US abstains pic.twitter.com/UBrmeKP5pG

— What the media hides. (@narrative_hole) March 25, 2024

AI WEIWEI: ¿ONE WORLD, ONE SYSTEM? (III)

 

Usted y otros han sido siempre disidentes y han plantado cara al poder, pero siempre con humor socarrón. ¿Es un salvavidas ante toda la presión y represión que ha sufrido desde niño?

Es lo que debería ser. Desde que tengo uso de razón, todo lo que me rodeaba se contradecía con la idea del mundo que yo tenía en la cabeza. Sólo el humor tiene esa especie de poder de subvertir esas contradicciones y curar las heridas.

¿Qué más cosas le hacen reír?

Cualquier cosa que la realidad nos depara, la política me suele hace reír. De hecho, para ir bien, tendríamos que estar riéndonos a carcajadas cada día.

¿Cuáles son sus nuevos proyectos?

Es uno que funcionará a largo plazo, que teje todo lo que he hecho hasta ahora. De hecho, no tenemos una idea clara de nuestro comportamiento hasta que miramos atrás para revisar nuestros procesos y ponerlos en el contexto adecuado y con una perspectiva correcta. En realidad todo lo que hago es intentar descubrirme y entenderme a mí mismo.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/magazine/personalidades/20220327/8125361/ai-weiwei-artista-omnipresente-voz-radical-veces-me-pregunto-dejare-huella.html#foto-8

TO MAKE MANKIND INTO SAUSAGES (SLAVERY, MASSACHUSETTS, CHINA, AFGHANISTAN)

 

"Much has been said about American slavery, but I think that we do not even yet realize what slavery is. If I were seriously to propose to Congress to make mankind into sausages, I have no doubt that most of the members would smile at my proposition, and if any believed me to be in earnest, they would think that I proposed something much worse than Congress had ever done. But if any of them will tell me that to make a man into a sausage would be much worse — would be any worse — than to make him into a slave — than it was to enact the Fugitive Slave Law, I will accuse him of foolishness, of intellectual incapacity, of making a distinction without a difference. The one is just as sensible a proposition as the other.

(…)

The foul slime stands for the sloth and vice of man, the decay of humanity; the fragrant flower that springs from it, for the purity and courage which are immortal. 

Slavery and servility have produced no sweet-scented flower annually, to charm the senses of men, for they have no real life: they are merely a decaying and a death, offensive to all healthy nostrils. We do not complain that they live, but that they do not get buried. Let the living bury them: even they are good for manure."

Slavery in Massachusetts
 
by Henry David Thoreau


ThoreauTransforms His Journal into “Slavery in Massachusetts”

I think the real lesson Thoreau intended is not his life-style; not even his two-year prescription for cure. It is his attitude. And of this, as the Editors of Time remind us, Walt Whitman's portrait is the best: "Thoreau's lawlessness -- his dissent -- his going his own absolute road let hell blaze all it chooses". This, I think, has been a distinguishing mark of the American character, ever present in its folklore, its politics, its classical and popular art, even in what Americans admire of other cultures -- just watch, if not, Hallmark's production of Merlin."

Notes on the "Complemental Verse" 

by René Pinet (Bahia, Mexico) 

Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it.

Learned Hand

Los momentos más terribles de las crisis trágicas y la caída de las víctimas siempre inocentes son aquellos que ponen al descubierto, progresivamente, a un número mayor de personas no sólo las “tonterías” interesadas sino los crímenes con que – como si fueran “tonterías”- se gobierna el mundo. 

Comienza entonces una lucha de resultado imprevisible contra quienes pretenden gobernar el mundo con sus “tonterías” criminales.

Thoreau advirtió de ello en la crisis de la esclavitud de su tiempo prolongada en el nuestro.Así lo recuerda también, hoy, Wendell Berry:

Because we have not made our lives to fit
our places, the forests are ruined, the fields, eroded,
the streams polluted, the mountains, overturned. Hope
then to belong to your place by your own knowledge
of what it is that no other place is, and by
your caring for it, as you care for no other place, this
knowledge cannot be taken from you by power or by wealth.
It will stop your ears to the powerful when they ask
for your faith, and to the wealthy when they ask for your land
and your work.  Be still and listen to the voices that belong
to the stream banks and the trees and the open fields.

Find your hope, then, on the ground under your feet.
Your hope of Heaven, let it rest on the ground underfoot.
The world is no better than its places. Its places at last
are no better than their people while their people
continue in them. When the people make
dark the light within them, the world darkens.

The light turned into darkness that Dylan shows here

Come here I'll break your lousy head

Our nation must be saved and freed

You've been accused of murder, how do you plead?

This is how I spend my days

I came to bury, not to raise

I'll drink my fill and sleep alone

I play in blood, but not my own

Bob Dylan

https://www.bobdylan.com/songs/pay-blood/