8.6 The Clash of Time Horizons
The core pathology of Western
impairment is a Clash of Time Horizons. Our system is ruled by multiple clocks
that are out of sync, and adversaries have learned to play them against one
another.
The Financial Clock is measured in
quarters. It demands
efficiency, just-in-time inventory, and asset lightness. It rewards buybacks,
not blast furnaces; SaaS multiples, not smelter uptime. This clock relentlessly
pressures firms to strip slack and externalise risk.
The Industrial Clock is measured in
decades. It requires
long-term capital commitments, redundant capacity, and patience for permitting
and construction. A copper smelter, a TNT plant, or a titanium sponge facility
lives on 20- to 40-year horizons. This clock cannot run at the speed of
quarterly earnings calls.
The War Clock is measured in days
and months. It demands
immediate surge capacity, massive physical stockpiles, and the ability to
absorb losses at scale. On this clock, the question is not IRR but "How
many shells, jets, and missiles can we field before the other side moves?"
The Climate Clock is measured in
carbon budgets and degree ceilings. It translates atmospheric physics into political
deadlines: "halve emissions by 2030," "net-zero by 2050."
It demands rapid decarbonization, hostility to new "dirty" heavy
industry, and a bias toward visible green deployments solar farms, EVs, wind
over invisible industrial resilience.
For thirty years, we have allowed
the Financial Clock and the Climate Clock to dominate, stripping the gears of
the Industrial and War clocks. ESG frameworks, net-zero pledges, and
CPI-targeted monetary policy all push in the same direction: de-risk balance
sheets, offload emissions, and avoid long-lived "dirty" assets. The
result is a system that looks virtuous and efficient on paper while quietly
hollowing out the midstream and energetics that any real war effort requires.
Beijing understands this clash and
exploits it. By hosting the world’s dirty midstream, China offers Western
elites a way to satisfy the Climate Clock and the Financial Clock with cheap
green imports, clean domestic air, and strong ESG scores at the direct expense
of the Industrial and War clocks. In essence, the West treats carbon emissions
with the same detached logic it applies to smartphone supply chains: as long as
the pollution and hazardous working conditions are geographically sequestered
from the Western electorate, the system operates under a convenient delusion of
sustainability.
Our clocks are fighting each other;
theirs are synchronized. Re-sovereignisation requires explicit policy
mechanisms that bind decision-makers to the slower, heavier rhythms of the
Industrial and War clocks, while integrating the Climate Clock as a constraint
to be managed at home rather than outsourced abroad.
8.7 Historical Parallels: When
Powers Forgot the Material World
The pattern isn’t new. Great powers
have fallen for the same illusion before: that finance, ideology or prestige
could outweigh the hard physics of industry. Every time, the correction was
brutal.
Britain’s early-20th-century
mistake: finance over furnaces
Britain entered the 1900s proud of
ruling global finance. Sterling was the reserve currency; London was the
world’s banker. Elites told themselves this mattered more than maintaining
industrial depth. Meanwhile, Germany was building the world’s strongest
chemical, steel and machine-tool sectors. When war arrived, Britain discovered
that financial supremacy doesn’t produce nitrates, armour plate or machine
tools. It had to rely on American steel, American explosives and American
credit. Monetary power couldn’t substitute for industrial power. Echo today:
The West thinks the dollar, the NASDAQ and “innovation” give it buffer room.
China is playing Germany’s role: win the midstream, let financial influence
follow.
The Dutch Republic: the world’s
first financialised power
The Dutch invented the modern
financial system and trusted it too much. Their economy was rich, liquid and
sophisticated. But France and England built larger industrial and military
systems, and the Dutch were eventually forced into strategic dependence on
England. Finance gave them leverage but not depth, wealth but not autonomy.
Echo today: A financialised power is fast and clever, but it is brittle without
industrial mass behind it.
The Soviet Union: abstraction
outrunning material limits The USSR made the opposite ideological gamble, that
political theory and military prestige could outrun material constraints. The
industrial base rotted underneath it, oil revenues sagged, and the entire system
collapsed under the weight of inputs it could no longer produce or afford. Echo
today: different ideology, same blind spot. Ignore the material base long
enough and the system stops responding to commands from the top.
The Real Historical Rhyme
Britain ceded industrial primacy to
America. America is now ceding industrial primacy to China.But the structural
difference is sharper: Britain stepped back into the hands of a friendly
hegemon. The US and Europe won’t get that luxury. Every major power that believed
money, theory or prestige could substitute for industry ended up reacting to
the world rather than shaping it.That is the precedent that mirrors the West’s
position today.
